DEBATE: #23in23 or #24in24?
NASCAR is no different when it comes to the matter of numbers. There are so many iconic numbers in NASCAR from the #43 to the #3 to the #24 and so many others. NASCAR drivers carry their own number to each race track. This number will translate to their fans in the stands who will have that number on everything they own from shirts to hats to diecasts.
In 2022, Joey Logano was able to do something that no other driver has accomplished, a particular feat with his #22. Logano won his second NASCAR Cup Series championship in 2022. Earlier in the season, Logano had coined the term #22in22. But in such a competitive NASCAR season that saw 19 different winners and lots of crazy action, it would be nearly impossible to predict that Logano and the #22 team could actually win the championship. Nonetheless, that is exactly what the #22 team did. They worked consistently to earn their way through the NASCAR Playoffs. When the championship moment came at Phoenix, Logano dominated the race and captured his second championship in five seasons. #22in22 had come true.
Winning a championship in the year that corresponds with the number on the car is something only Logano has done in the near 75 year history of NASCAR. However, over the next couple of years, two more drivers will have the opportunity to add their names to the list. Bubba Wallace will be driving the #23 Toyota for 23XI Racing in 2023 and beyond. William Byron will be piloting the #24 Chevrolet for Hendrick Motorsports through at least 2025. Therefore, in this debate Zach Bell and Justin Seger debate which driver is more likely to join Logano in winning the championship in the year of their number.
Zach: With
Joey Logano successfully completing the #22in22 challenge with his
championship win at Phoenix, it’s time to ask ourselves: Can Bubba Wallace make #23in23 happen? While it seems like a long shot I will explain how and why
Bubba can be the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
The first step is, of course, making
the playoffs. This most likely means where can Bubba win a race at in the 26
race regular season. Coming into the 2023 season Bubba Wallace is a 2-time Cup
Series winner (at Talladega in the Fall of 2021, and Kansas in the Fall of
2022), but has never made the playoffs. I’ve circled 12 different races Bubba
could win in the regular season, and divided them into three categories: favorite, underdog, and unexpected.
Races that I would include in this
unexpected category are Charlotte, New Hampshire, Nashville, and Martinsville.
At both Charlotte and Nashville, Bubba was, at one point, the fastest car in the
race but ran into mistakes. At Charlotte, it was a crash. At Nashville, he had
a series of miscues on pit road. I marked New Hampshire because this was
largely where his 2022 season started to turn around from a rough start to a
competitive second half. Lastly, I added Martinsville because he is a two-time
truck series winner there. Although Bubba has never been elite at Martinsville
in his cup career: he knows how to dominate there.
I put two races in the
underdog category Michigan and Pocono. Bubba Wallace has had back-to-back years
of top 10 runs at Pocono. With the Pocono GOAT, Denny Hamlin, giving him advice, I expect Bubba to continue to compete for wins here. Michigan looked like
Bubba’s best shot to make it into the 2022 playoffs. He qualified on the pole
and was up front in the Top-10 most of the day and finished second. Wallace has
also won a truck race before at Michigan. I expect if Bubba hasn’t already
locked himself into the playoffs he and 23XI look to capitalize here.
Now the
final group tracks: favorites. He’s a favorite at both Daytona races,
both Atlanta races, Talladega, and Kansas. Wallace is coming off a runner-up in
the 2022 Daytona 500, and looks like a favorite again under the advice of
Daytona 500 legend, Denny Hamlin. Atlanta’s superspeedway style repave lends
itself to Bubba’s pack racing skills and if the help falls a certain way, Bubba
could win.
Lastly, are Talladega and Kansas the two tracks he has won at in the
Cup Series he should come in as an early favorite at both tracks and it’s worth
noting 23XI swept both Kansas races in 2022.
So the question is what is my
official prediction? Bubba Wallace wins 3 regular season races the Daytona 500,
Michigan, and Nashville. Heading into the 2023 playoffs Wallace should have a
decent points cushion with three wins plus some stage and points position bonus
points.
Round 1 sets up relatively well for Bubba a trip to Darlington, the
return to Kansas, and the Bristol night race. Bubba has had some highlights at
Bristol early in his career and I expected that trend to continue, but his
easiest path to winning is to repeat at Kansas like he did in 2022.
Round 2 is
the wildcard round featuring trips to Texas, Talladega, and the Roval. I think
to advance here Bubba goes all in on Talladega and can easily win that race.
Round 3 includes trips to Las Vegas, Homestead, and Martinsville. While none of
these races standout as a likely Bubba win one of the championship 4 drivers
advances on points and I think that’ll be Bubba.
Lastly we reach the
championship round at Phoenix where it’s a one off may the best man win and if
I know Bubba he’d do anything for a title. So here’s Bubba’s season total
prediction from me 5 wins, and a championship 4 appearance where anything can
happen.
Justin: In my opinion, William Byron is far more likely to achieve #24in24. There are a multitude of reasons to do this. The first and foremost being that William Byron has another season to prepare for this challenge than Bubba Wallace does. Wallace has to be ready to be championship caliber this season. Byron still has another season to grow. This alone is reason to give the edge to William Byron. I believe that Byron is already more prepared for this challenge than Bubba anyway. Both drivers had rookie seasons in 2018. Since then, Byron has had a better season than Wallace in every statistical category in every season. Byron has also qualified for the NASCAR Playoffs four seasons in a row, an accomplishment Wallace has yet to do. While Byron did not have as good of a season in 2022 statistically as he did the year before, he still managed to finish 6th in the final standings. Byron's final standings finishes have gradually gotten better each year. With a 6th place finish in 2022, it is not far fetched to see a Final Four appearance in 2023 and then a title to win it all in 2024.
Another thing that gives Byron the edge is the team around him. 23XI Racing has had an incredible start to their NASCAR Cup Series run. The team co-led by Denny Hamlin and Michael Jordan has won races in both seasons they have competed in thus far. However, William Byron drives for Hendrick Motorsports. HMS has more NASCAR Cup Series wins than any other organization in the history of the sport. 23XI Racing has done great, but HMS has a far bigger advantage as a team. Byron also has the help of his longtime crew chief, Rudy Fugle. Rudy has won races and championships with multiple drivers in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. In 2016, he helped lead Byron to a 7 win season with an average finish of 9.2. In just two Cup Series seasons, Fugle has helped Byron earn 3 wins and an increased average finish. We have seen in NASCAR what it means to have the right driver/crew chief combinations. Chad Knaus, Adam Stevens, Rodney Childers, and Cole Pearn are all just a few modern examples of how a great crew chief can turn a great driver into a championship caliber driver. I believe Rudy Fugle to be that right combination for William Byron to be a championship caliber driver.
I have proven that William Byron has the resources available to win a championship. But how does William Byron get it done? Which races does he win? What tracks should he capitalize on? It is not certain what the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series schedule will look like. However, we can assume that there will most likely be at least one trip to Martinsville in the regular season. and a couple of trips to Daytona. These are two tracks that Byron has proven he can win at. Martinsville, in particular, Byron has proven that he can dominate at.
Martinsville is a track that can be Byron's pathway to the Championship 4 in the Playoffs, assuming in remains in the Round of 8. As far as getting to the Round of 8, Byron needs to run consistently enough to make it. The Round of 16 benefits itself to those who are consistent and without a major mistake, he may not need a win. The Round of 12 is much more chaotic. However, Byron is a disciplined Superspeedway racer and should be able to use that to avoid the chaos there. Again, if he can avoid any major incidents, he should be just fine finding a spot in the Round of 8. Once he gets there, prepare for him to capitalize on both Homestead and Martinsville. Once the championship round at Phoenix comes around, all it takes is one good race and #24in24 will be a reality.
Both Bubba Wallace and William Byron are top-level talents in the NASCAR Cup Series. It is not entirely far-fetched to believe that both drivers can and will be championship contenders in the near future. Both Zach and Justin have made solid arguments for why each driver will join Joey Logano by winning the championship in the year corresponding with their car number. Will Zach's or Justin's argument prove to be true? Both? Neither? We will have to tune in to the next couple of NASCAR Cup Series seasons to find out.
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