Is Martin Truex Jr. Poised to Win the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Championship?

 
Photo: TobyChristie.com


Martin Truex Jr. captured his first win in the NASCAR Busch Light Clash last night at the L.A. Coliseum.  Truex joins Joey Logano as one of only two drivers to win at the quarter-mile football shaped oval.  While this was not a points race for NASCAR's top series, this win gives Martin Truex Jr. and the #19 team a much needed momentum boost after coming off a rough season in 2022.

But does one win at the Clash automatically make MTJ a favorite to win the championship?  Joey Logano was able to bookend the 2022 season with a Clash victory and a championship.  Who's to say that Truex could not do the same in 2023?  I am determined that 2023 is shaping up to be an outstanding year for the driver of the #19 Toyota.

It's an odd numbered year.  That may not sound like much of a reason to some but Martin Truex Jr. has not missed the Championship 4 in an odd-numbered year since NASCAR introduced an elimination style playoff format.  In 2015, Truex scored a win at Pocono and was able to secure his first Champ 4 appearance with his consistency in the Chase.  In 2017, Martin Truex Jr. was able to dominate the season and earn not only 8 wins but a championship as well.  In 2019, MTJ had a 7 win season with his first season at Joe Gibbs Racing and had a Championship 4 appearance.  In 2021, he was able to score 4 wins and his fifth Champ 4 appearance in just seven seasons.  Prior to 2015, Truex had only had two wins in his Cup Career: One in 2007 (Dover) and one in 2013 (Sonoma).  The odd numbered years have simply been kinder to MTJ.  Of Truex's 31 NASCAR Cup victories (Not including last night's Clash victory), 22 have come from an odd numbered year.  That accounts for over 70% of his win totals.

He has momentum back.  Winning the Busch Light Clash may not mean much for MTJ in regards to a final wins total or points standing in 2023.  But the victory at the L.A. Coliseum proved not only to the doubters, but to himself that he has what it takes to still get wins at the highest level of NASCAR.  The win at the Clash puts everyone in the garage on notice that the driver of the #19 is back and is ready to take on the upcoming season.

The stats suggest he'll make the playoffs.  Not all Clash winners win a championship.  Certainly, not all Clash winners win a championship in the same season.  However, only three times since NASCAR has had some form of a Chase/Playoff style format (2004) has the winner of the clash failed to add their names to that list of postseason drivers.  Martin Truex Jr. has proven that he has the ability to make it through the rounds of the Playoffs if only he can get there.

Martin Truex Jr.'s 2023 Busch Light Clash victory may not be a guaranteed championship ticket, but it certainly can be a catalyst to a great season.  I believe that the momentum that this team has gotten from his victory last night, can propel him throughout the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season.

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